Web 1.0 - Web 2.0 Social Networking declining, moving towards web 3.0

[Ray van den Bel]

The Open Networkers can see it everywhere now: Traditional web 1.0 - web 2.0 portals are declining in popularity, networkers in general want more quality (quick) interaction instead of quantity (and time consuming) 'information'.

First let's make it more clear what we are talking about:

Most online networkers tend to stay 5 years in one phase of their online evolution. Up to now, most people where in the 2 first phases (left) of this model.

The Portals mentioned in phases 1 and 2 now seem to have reached a peak in their popularity (they might still grow in numbers of profiles but their 'unique daily visitors' decline or stagnate) and more and more people are seeing that these networks do not offer a lot of Value.

For a moment it was funny to send out virtual 'flowers' or 'hugs' on Facebook but also there we can see that people are getting bored with all these 'dating' applications which are also very time-consuming.

Movement to Value
So what are we looking for in the next phase of online social and business networking? In general we are seeking to get a real human experience and to be very selective with whom we share that experience.

In order for that to happen we need quality Profiles, not just showing words, but also profiling rich material such as video and photo's. Furthermore we want tools to directly interact by voice and (online) personal presence if possible (web-conference and sharing).

Up to now these tools where very immature, they where technical by nature and we needed to do all sorts of things in order to install or use them on our computer. Most of the new technologies seemed to have to go through a 'trough of disillusionment' but are now in a maturing phase.
Gartner published this matrix which roughly shows you some technologies and their maturing stages.

What next?
The next generation internet is very transparent, it will show exactly where you are, who you are and what you are doing or want to do using those new maturing technologies. So it is time to really think about the message you are sending out with your online Profile, we are getting serious.

But being serious doesn't mean that we don't want to have fun, as long as it is more 'business' and reflects the 'real' world. Ning.com is a first example where people can create their own social niche network. Do you want to create a network for enthusiasts about windscreen-wipers? No problem just go ahead, it's free.

Those small niche -networks are very targeted, offer rich profiling and if you are e.g. a company fabricating windscreen-wipers you'll be on the lookout for exactly these kind of spirited people. So that is where the Value is even if there are just a handful of members there. It's the quality of members that count.

I mentioned something else, being 'spiritual'. As more and more people are recognizing that the next generation of internet will be very transparent we are rethinking our Profile. Doing so we are rethinking ourselves, what we really want to do (out of passion) instead of what we should do (out of habit, past experiences or environmental pressure).
That is why there are so many active spiritual networkers on niche networks. They have found their passion and are showing it in a targeted way.

So it would be very interesting to see if the emerging technologies behind LivePlace.com will be mature enough to our new standards, because it seems very promising indeed, coming at just the right moment:


Updated 8-8-2009; What lies further ahead for the coming 15 years?:

'Right-click' image to enlarge
Web-evolution 2010-2025
Web 3.5 is where we start interacting using avatars (like in SecondLife or Liveplace.com) and are able to use our other senses as well such as 'touch' or 3d experiences. Web 4.0 is where we have left the road of the Avatars and are using holograms to represent ourselves instead. It's an evolution of web 3.5 3D techniques. You guessed it, web 4.5 is the environment where we can sense holograms using our senses, already there is some progress in this field which you can read in the attachment on this page (scroll down a bit).Web 5.0 is the environment where every aspect is holographic, including senses. In web 5.0 we are able to interact using special suits using holograms meeting with other holograms in a virtual but very real world.

Example videos:

[Jim - medXcentral]

Another great article.. in my opinion. Thanks, Ray. I really like the Hype Cycle graph you found. Makes a clear point.

[David]

I liked the Hype cycle graph too. Has it been around long?

For anyone not up on exactly what Web 3.0 is, like me, I got this description from wikipedia:

Nova Spivack defines Web 3.0 as the third decade of the Web (2010–2020) during which he suggests several major complementary technology trends will reach new levels of maturity simultaneously including:

* transformation of the Web from a network of separately siloed applications and content repositories to a more seamless and interoperable whole.
* ubiquitous connectivity, broadband adoption, mobile Internet access and mobile devices;
* network computing, software-as-a-service business models, Web services interoperability, distributed computing, grid computing and cloud computing;
* open technologies, open APIs and protocols, open data formats, open-source software platforms and open data (e.g. Creative Commons, Open Data License);
* open identity, OpenID, open reputation, roaming portable identity and personal data;
* the intelligent web, Semantic Web technologies such as RDF, OWL, SWRL, SPARQL, GRDDL, semantic application platforms, and statement-based datastores;
* distributed databases, the "World Wide Database" (enabled by Semantic Web technologies); and
* intelligent applications, natural language processing.[2], machine learning, machine reasoning, autonomous agents.[3]

-David
http://PremierDenverHomes.com

[Shane 54]

Great article. This has been my vision for years. I work in developing vitual worlds and can say this future is very close.
The biggest players will be the early adapters willing to take high risks.
Regardless, its a new field that no one is really capitalizing in yet.
Can't wait until its all mainstream.

[Åke Nygren]

Interesting article! I will save it for a presentation on social networks that I will give in October.

Thanks
Åke

[April Gezunterman]

thank you for sending this to me!!!As a 54 year old woman with no internet experience until 2003, I am self taught by the way!!!!!!i am in the process of what do I want to do when I grow up!!!!!!!!!The inner net dream office is my wave for the future!!!!!!i want easy soft ware i can download like the kind on ning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!i love putting up new pages on ning!!!!!!!!Click.click and I am done....... I am still learning how to download it all!!!!!!!If you have any free classes to increase my education I would love to hear about them!!I love spiritual web pages and want to help my friends get them up and to make money as well!!!!!!!!!!!!Ideas i am ready for the future dreams on net 3.....Thanks you so very much Aprilji

[Ronald]

Ray

Interesting article. But is the wordl ready for it. Do we have the networks to support it now. In the USA? In Australia, In Europe? The Hype cycle posses some significant shift in technology.

Ronald

[Shawn King]

Great info, Thanks Ray.

Shawn

[Donna L. Quesinberry]

Well thank you for the support - meaning...in this transition from 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0 there's that part of an individual that feels like we are leaving folks behind in moving to yet another phase of Internet life. A site like Grouply offers a nice interface of all the former and emerging worlds where you can "one-step" updates and still reach out.

Nice article - I like the graphics that demonstrate the view.

~Donna.

[Wael]

Hi every body .. I am new here. I am not native English-speaker so pls excuse my average English.

The recent months I run many discussion (like on GMS, GBA-ning ..) trying to be part of co-creation an out-line about what I call "Global Brain Application (GBA)"-"seed" to express the evolution path of our information- and consciousness-age we require toward building the civilisation of the new humanity making the traditional political system history.

GBA should be the tool for operation and co-creation holistic integral synergy and commons.

I had to become again and again aware that the "seed" is already spread every where, but still has not the shape that we can all address and work to speed up its growth.

So I would to add on "what is next" ; Start with developing GBA as open-source project.

[April Gezunterman]

so cool the wave is here ride it boys we need all the help we can get!!!Love Aprilji